Artículos Cientificos
Desigualdad, crecimiento y desarrollo económico en América Latina
Nicolás Rivera Garzón- Miller Rivera Lozano
Publicado
December 18, 2020
Palabras clave
- crecimiento económico,
- desigualdad en el ingreso,
- democracia,
- América Latina,
- ingreso por habitante
- formulación de políticas ...Más
Cómo citar
[1]
Rivera Garzón, N. y Rivera Lozano, M. 2020. Desigualdad, crecimiento y desarrollo económico en América Latina. Aglala. 11, 2 (dic. 2020), 80-93.
Resumen
Considerando el contexto anterior, el objetivo del artículo es identificar las relaciones causales entre la desigualdad de ingresos, los niveles de democracia y el crecimiento económico en América Latina de 1996 a 2014. Con este objetivo en mente, se estiman modelos de efectos fijos y aleatorios con una periodicidad de episodios de crecimiento de dos, cinco y diez años para analizar el impacto de las variables de interés en diferentes horizontes temporales. Los países de la muestra son Argentina, Bolivia, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, República Dominicana, Ecuador, El Salvador, Jamaica, México, Panamá, Perú y Venezuela. Los resultados indican que los incrementos en los niveles de democracia tienen un efecto negativo sobre el crecimiento del PIB per cápita en los episodios de crecimiento de dos años, para luego volverse positivo en el quinto año y alcanzar su efecto máximo diez años después. Esto resalta la importancia de la estabilidad de los regímenes políticos para que un país alcance un estado de crecimiento estacionario. Los resultados de la variable Gini muestran que niveles más altos de desigualdad de ingresos conducen a un menor crecimiento económico. Su impacto negativo alcanza su máximo cinco años después del choque que desencadenó el aumento de la desigualdad.
Descargas
La descarga de datos todavía no está disponible.
Citas
Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., & Robinson, J. (2005). Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth. In P. Aghion, & S. N. Durlauf, Handbook of Economic Growth, Volume 1, Part A (pp. 385-472). Amsterdam: Elsevier.
Acemoglu, D., Naidu, S., Restrepo, P., & Robinson, J. (2019). Democracy Does Cause Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 127(1), 47-100. https://doi.org/10.1086/700936
Aghion, P., & Howitt, P. (1998). Endogenous Growth Theory. Cambridge: MIT Press.
Aghion, P., Caroli, E., & García-Peñalosa, C. (1999). Inequality and Economic Growth: The Perspective of the New Growth Theories. Journal of Economic Literature, 37(4), 1615-1660. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2565487
Alesina, A., & Perotti, R. (1994). The Political Economy of Growth: A Critical Survey of the Recent Literature. The World Bank Economic Review, 8(3), 351-371. https://www.jstor.org/stable/3989954
Alesina, A., & Perotti, R. (1996). Income Distribution, Political Instability, And Investment. European Economic Review, 40(6), 1203-1228.
Alesina, A., & Rodrik, D. (1994). Distributive Politics and Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109(2), 465-490. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2118470
Alesina, A., Özler, S., Roubini, N., & Swagel, P. (1996). Political Instability and Economic Growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 1(2), 189-211. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40215915
Altman, D., & Castiglioni, R. (2009). Democratic Quality and Human Development in Latin America: 1972-2001. Revue canadienne de science politique, 42(2), 297-319. https://www.jstor.org/stable/27754469
Banerjee, A. V., & Duflo, E. (2003). Inequality and Growth: What Can the Data Say? Journal of Economic Growth, 8(3), 267–299. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1026205114860
Barro, R. (1996). Democracy and Growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 11, 1-27. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40215879
Barro, R. (2000). Inequality and Growth in a Panel of Countries. Journal of Economic Growth, 5(1), 5-32. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40216021
Castells-Quintana, D., & Royuela, V. (2014). Agglomeration, inequality and economic growth. The Annals of Regional Science, 52(2), 343–366. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-014-0589-1
Clarke, G. (1995). More Evidence on Income Distribution and Growth. Journal of Development Economics, 47(2), 403-427.
Davtyan, K. (2016). Interrelation among Economic Growth, Income Inequality, and Fiscal Performance: Evidence from Anglo-Saxon Countries. Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, 217(2), 37-66.
Deininger, K., & Squire, L. (1996). A new data set measuring income inequality. The World Bank economic review, 10(3), 565-591.
Dominicis, L. d., Groot, H. L., & Florax, R. J. (2006). Growth and Inequality: A Meta-Analysis. Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 2006-064/3.
Forbes, K. (2000). A Reassessment of the Relationship between Inequality and Growth. The American Economic Review, 90(4), 869-887.
Hernández, I. (2005). Teoría política y fiscal. Bogotá: Universidad Externado de Colombia.
Kaldor, N. (1957). A Model of Economic Growth. The Economic Journal, 67(268), 591–624. www.jstor.org/stable/2227704
Kang, J. W. (2015). Interrelation between Growth and Inequality, ADB Economics Working Paper Series 447, Asian Development Bank.
Kaufmann, D., & Vicente, P. (2011). Legal corruption. Economics & Politics, 23(2), 195-219.
Keefer, P., & Knack, S. (2002). Polarization, Politics and Property Rights: Links Between Inequality and Growth. Public Choice, 111(1-2), 127–154. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1015168000336
Knutsen, C. H. (2013). Democracy, State Capacity, and Economic Growth. World Development, 43, 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2012.10.014
Kuznets, S. (1955). Economic Growth and Income Inequality. American Economic Review, 45(1), 1-28. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1811581
Li, H., & Zou, H.-F. (1998). Income Inequality is Not Harmful for Growth: Theory and Evidence. Review of Development Economics, 2, 318-334. https://ssrn.com/abstract=468915
Li, H., Squire, L., & Zou, H.‐f. (2001). Explaining International and Intertemporal Variations in Income Inequality. The Economic Journal, 108(446). https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0297.00271
Lorente, L. (2018). Dinámica del crecimiento económico. Bogotá: Universidad Nacional de Colombia.
Marshall, M., Gurr, T., & Jaggers, K. (2018). POLITY IV PROJECT: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2017. Center for Systemic Peace. https://www.systemicpeace.org/polityproject.html
Matsuyama, K. (2002). The Rise of Mass Consumption Societies. The Journal of Political Economy, 110(5), 1035-1070.
Orozco, C., Rivera, N. (2018). Instituciones como factor decisivo para el crecimiento económico. Econografos - Escuela de Economía (120). http://www.fce.unal.edu.co/centro-editorial/documentos/econografos-escuela-economia/1926-120-instituciones-como-factor-decisivo-para-el-crecimiento-economico.html
Panizza, U. (2002). Income Inequality and Economic Growth: Evidence from American Data. Journal of Economic Growth, 7(2), 25-41. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40216052
Perea De Zubiria, F., Rivera, N. (2020). Efecto causal de la política de seguridad democrática sobre los ataques de grupos subversivos en Colombia. Econografos - Escuela de Economía (152). http://fce.unal.edu.co/centro-editorial/documentos/econografos-escuela-economia/2608-152-efecto-causal-de-la-politica-de-seguridad-democratica-sobre-los-ataques-de-grupos-subversivos-en-colombia.html
Perotti, R. (1992). Fiscal Policy, Income Distribution, and Growth. Columbia University Working Paper 636.
Perotti, R. (1994). Income distribution and investment. European Economic Review, 38(3-4), 827-835.
Perotti, R. (1996). Growth, income distribution, and democracy: What the data say. Journal of Economic Growth, 12, 149–187. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00138861
Persson, T., & Tabellini, G. (1992). Growth, distribution and politics. European Economic Review, 36(2-3), 593-602.
Persson, T., & Tabellini, G. (1994). Is Inequality Harmful for Growth? The American Economic Review, 84(3), 600-621. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2118070
Pettersson, J. (2003). Democracy, Consolidation and Growth. Research Papers in Economics 2002:16, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
Rivera Lozano, M., Rivera Garzón, N. (2019). Crisis financieras: esta vez no es distinto. Revista Finanzas y Política Económica, 11(1). http://doi.org/10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.2019.11.1.8
Rivera Lozano, M., Rivera Garzón, N. 2019. A complex toolbox for the 21st century economist. Aglala. 10, 2 (dic. 2019), 196-211. https://doi.org/10.22519/22157360.1442
Rivera Lozano, M., Rivera Garzón, N. (2020). Crecimiento económico de América Latina en el siglo XX. Panorama Económico, 28(3), 129-142. https://doi.org/10.32997/pe-2020-2696
Rodrik, D., & Wacziarg, R. (2005). Do Democratic Transitions Produce Bad Economic Outcomes? The American Economic Review, 95(2), 50-55. https://www.jstor.org/stable/4132789
Sachs, J. (2002). Resolving the Debt Crisis of Low-Income Countries. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 33(1), 257-286.
Shin, I. (2012). Income inequality and economic growth. Economic Modelling, 29(5), 2049-2057. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.011
Shin, I., Kim, H., & Yamamura, E. (2009). Technological Progress and the Future of Kuznets. MPRA (Munich Personal RePEc Archive) Paper No. 18866.
Solt, F. (2019). “Measuring Income Inequality Across Countries and Over Time: The Standardized World Income Inequality Database.” SWIID Version 8.1, May 2019. https://fsolt.org/swiid/
Sukiassyan, G. (2004). Inequality and Growth: What Does the Transition Economy Data Say? Journal of Comparative Economics, 35(1), 35-56.
Acemoglu, D., Naidu, S., Restrepo, P., & Robinson, J. (2019). Democracy Does Cause Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 127(1), 47-100. https://doi.org/10.1086/700936
Aghion, P., & Howitt, P. (1998). Endogenous Growth Theory. Cambridge: MIT Press.
Aghion, P., Caroli, E., & García-Peñalosa, C. (1999). Inequality and Economic Growth: The Perspective of the New Growth Theories. Journal of Economic Literature, 37(4), 1615-1660. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2565487
Alesina, A., & Perotti, R. (1994). The Political Economy of Growth: A Critical Survey of the Recent Literature. The World Bank Economic Review, 8(3), 351-371. https://www.jstor.org/stable/3989954
Alesina, A., & Perotti, R. (1996). Income Distribution, Political Instability, And Investment. European Economic Review, 40(6), 1203-1228.
Alesina, A., & Rodrik, D. (1994). Distributive Politics and Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109(2), 465-490. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2118470
Alesina, A., Özler, S., Roubini, N., & Swagel, P. (1996). Political Instability and Economic Growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 1(2), 189-211. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40215915
Altman, D., & Castiglioni, R. (2009). Democratic Quality and Human Development in Latin America: 1972-2001. Revue canadienne de science politique, 42(2), 297-319. https://www.jstor.org/stable/27754469
Banerjee, A. V., & Duflo, E. (2003). Inequality and Growth: What Can the Data Say? Journal of Economic Growth, 8(3), 267–299. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1026205114860
Barro, R. (1996). Democracy and Growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 11, 1-27. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40215879
Barro, R. (2000). Inequality and Growth in a Panel of Countries. Journal of Economic Growth, 5(1), 5-32. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40216021
Castells-Quintana, D., & Royuela, V. (2014). Agglomeration, inequality and economic growth. The Annals of Regional Science, 52(2), 343–366. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-014-0589-1
Clarke, G. (1995). More Evidence on Income Distribution and Growth. Journal of Development Economics, 47(2), 403-427.
Davtyan, K. (2016). Interrelation among Economic Growth, Income Inequality, and Fiscal Performance: Evidence from Anglo-Saxon Countries. Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, 217(2), 37-66.
Deininger, K., & Squire, L. (1996). A new data set measuring income inequality. The World Bank economic review, 10(3), 565-591.
Dominicis, L. d., Groot, H. L., & Florax, R. J. (2006). Growth and Inequality: A Meta-Analysis. Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 2006-064/3.
Forbes, K. (2000). A Reassessment of the Relationship between Inequality and Growth. The American Economic Review, 90(4), 869-887.
Hernández, I. (2005). Teoría política y fiscal. Bogotá: Universidad Externado de Colombia.
Kaldor, N. (1957). A Model of Economic Growth. The Economic Journal, 67(268), 591–624. www.jstor.org/stable/2227704
Kang, J. W. (2015). Interrelation between Growth and Inequality, ADB Economics Working Paper Series 447, Asian Development Bank.
Kaufmann, D., & Vicente, P. (2011). Legal corruption. Economics & Politics, 23(2), 195-219.
Keefer, P., & Knack, S. (2002). Polarization, Politics and Property Rights: Links Between Inequality and Growth. Public Choice, 111(1-2), 127–154. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1015168000336
Knutsen, C. H. (2013). Democracy, State Capacity, and Economic Growth. World Development, 43, 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2012.10.014
Kuznets, S. (1955). Economic Growth and Income Inequality. American Economic Review, 45(1), 1-28. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1811581
Li, H., & Zou, H.-F. (1998). Income Inequality is Not Harmful for Growth: Theory and Evidence. Review of Development Economics, 2, 318-334. https://ssrn.com/abstract=468915
Li, H., Squire, L., & Zou, H.‐f. (2001). Explaining International and Intertemporal Variations in Income Inequality. The Economic Journal, 108(446). https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0297.00271
Lorente, L. (2018). Dinámica del crecimiento económico. Bogotá: Universidad Nacional de Colombia.
Marshall, M., Gurr, T., & Jaggers, K. (2018). POLITY IV PROJECT: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2017. Center for Systemic Peace. https://www.systemicpeace.org/polityproject.html
Matsuyama, K. (2002). The Rise of Mass Consumption Societies. The Journal of Political Economy, 110(5), 1035-1070.
Orozco, C., Rivera, N. (2018). Instituciones como factor decisivo para el crecimiento económico. Econografos - Escuela de Economía (120). http://www.fce.unal.edu.co/centro-editorial/documentos/econografos-escuela-economia/1926-120-instituciones-como-factor-decisivo-para-el-crecimiento-economico.html
Panizza, U. (2002). Income Inequality and Economic Growth: Evidence from American Data. Journal of Economic Growth, 7(2), 25-41. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40216052
Perea De Zubiria, F., Rivera, N. (2020). Efecto causal de la política de seguridad democrática sobre los ataques de grupos subversivos en Colombia. Econografos - Escuela de Economía (152). http://fce.unal.edu.co/centro-editorial/documentos/econografos-escuela-economia/2608-152-efecto-causal-de-la-politica-de-seguridad-democratica-sobre-los-ataques-de-grupos-subversivos-en-colombia.html
Perotti, R. (1992). Fiscal Policy, Income Distribution, and Growth. Columbia University Working Paper 636.
Perotti, R. (1994). Income distribution and investment. European Economic Review, 38(3-4), 827-835.
Perotti, R. (1996). Growth, income distribution, and democracy: What the data say. Journal of Economic Growth, 12, 149–187. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00138861
Persson, T., & Tabellini, G. (1992). Growth, distribution and politics. European Economic Review, 36(2-3), 593-602.
Persson, T., & Tabellini, G. (1994). Is Inequality Harmful for Growth? The American Economic Review, 84(3), 600-621. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2118070
Pettersson, J. (2003). Democracy, Consolidation and Growth. Research Papers in Economics 2002:16, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
Rivera Lozano, M., Rivera Garzón, N. (2019). Crisis financieras: esta vez no es distinto. Revista Finanzas y Política Económica, 11(1). http://doi.org/10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.2019.11.1.8
Rivera Lozano, M., Rivera Garzón, N. 2019. A complex toolbox for the 21st century economist. Aglala. 10, 2 (dic. 2019), 196-211. https://doi.org/10.22519/22157360.1442
Rivera Lozano, M., Rivera Garzón, N. (2020). Crecimiento económico de América Latina en el siglo XX. Panorama Económico, 28(3), 129-142. https://doi.org/10.32997/pe-2020-2696
Rodrik, D., & Wacziarg, R. (2005). Do Democratic Transitions Produce Bad Economic Outcomes? The American Economic Review, 95(2), 50-55. https://www.jstor.org/stable/4132789
Sachs, J. (2002). Resolving the Debt Crisis of Low-Income Countries. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 33(1), 257-286.
Shin, I. (2012). Income inequality and economic growth. Economic Modelling, 29(5), 2049-2057. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.011
Shin, I., Kim, H., & Yamamura, E. (2009). Technological Progress and the Future of Kuznets. MPRA (Munich Personal RePEc Archive) Paper No. 18866.
Solt, F. (2019). “Measuring Income Inequality Across Countries and Over Time: The Standardized World Income Inequality Database.” SWIID Version 8.1, May 2019. https://fsolt.org/swiid/
Sukiassyan, G. (2004). Inequality and Growth: What Does the Transition Economy Data Say? Journal of Comparative Economics, 35(1), 35-56.